Over $200 million has been wagered on the outcome of the upcoming United States presidential election in November through the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket.
As of the latest data, bets totaling $203.3 million are spread across 17 prediction markets focused on the “Presidential Election Winner 2024.” Participants place bets on whether specific candidates will win or lose, opting for either “Yes” or “No” outcomes.
Former President Donald Trump currently leads the predictions, with a 62% likelihood of winning, backed by $24.7 million in wagers both for and against his victory. In second place is incumbent President Joe Biden, with $23.9 million in bets assessing his chances of securing another term. However, Biden’s odds have decreased from 34% to 21% following a perceived underwhelming performance in the first presidential debate on June 28.
The platform also shows increased interest in Democratic figures like Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris, and Michelle Obama, whose odds have surged amidst speculation about Biden’s candidacy.
Aside from the main election winner markets, Polymarket has seen significant activity in related betting markets. Following Biden’s debate performance, bets have spiked on markets speculating whether he might withdraw from the presidential race by certain dates, collectively attracting over $10 million in wagers.
Moreover, there are niche markets assessing the chances of figures like American rapper Kanye West and crypto skeptic Elizabeth Warren winning the presidency, although these markets indicate less than a 1% probability at this stage.
Polymarket, operating on the Ethereum sidechain Polygon, achieved a record trading volume of $109.9 million in June, marking its first time crossing the $100 million threshold according to Dune Analytics. This surge reflects a substantial increase compared to trading volumes from earlier months, signaling growing interest and participation in decentralized prediction markets.
The platform’s growth is also evidenced by a 115% rise in monthly active traders to 29,266 in June, underscoring its expanding user base. Additionally, the total value locked in Polymarket has risen to $40.2 million, a nearly 69% increase over the past 30 days, as reported by Token Terminal data.
Polymarket, founded in June 2020 and supported by prominent backers like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and venture capital firm Founders Fund, aims to provide transparent insights through decentralized prediction markets. According to Yuga Cohler, an engineering lead at Coinbase, these markets serve as tools for uncovering unbiased truths amid complex narratives and are instrumental in advancing societal discourse.
