The Polymarket election contract for the U.S. general is showing a split decision on the chances of former President Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden getting elected, contrasting with traditional polls.
As of now, “yes” shares for both Trump and Biden are trading at 45 cents, indicating that the market gives each candidate a 45% chance of winning. Each share pays out $1 if the prediction turns out correct and nothing if it doesn’t.
Traders on the crypto-based prediction market have wagered a record-breaking $124.43 million on the election, with $28.25 million being bet on or against the two leading candidates. Michelle Obama, wife of former President Barack Obama, is trading at 5%, while independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is at 3%.
This data suggests that there’s a significant level of uncertainty among traders, with neither Trump nor Biden being seen as clear frontrunners. The discrepancy between market sentiment and traditional polls highlights the complexities and nuances of predicting election outcomes.
